Aviation industry data intelligence company WINGX has released its WINGX Weekly Global Market Tracker, which this week examines the sharp contraction in business jet departures and the disruption to commercial airline schedules throughout the Middle East following the armed conflict between Iran, Israel and the United States on 28 February.
The chart below shows the total business jet departures from Middle East airports on a day-by-day basis across the two weeks prior to and including the outbreak of the conflict.
The chart clearly demonstrates a sharp drop from Saturday 28 February, WINGX says, illustrating how rapidly the shock translated to bizjet traffic disruption.
However, 371 business jet flights did take off from Middle East airports between 27 February and 1 March. Looking at the destinations, aircraft fled primarily to neighbouring and near-regional markets, with a notable tilt toward countries offering geographic proximity and operational continuity.
WINGX says the biggest drops were in flights within the region. For example, there was a 60% reduction in flights to and within Saudi Arabia.
According to WINGX, Türkiye was the top destination country, absorbing nearly a quarter of all flights. The company notes that the figure was still 20.5% below the same period a year ago, suggesting that while Türkiye was the top arrival country, it still felt the impact of the conflict.
When it comes to Europe, the company observed that France, Greece, Italy and the UK collectively drew 18.7% of the traffic escaping the Middle East, and that overall the 30.8% decline in total outbound flights versus the same period last year underscores the severity of the demand shock in the Middle East.
Commercial aviation
The report also looks at the impact on commercial passenger services and air cargo operations. WINGX says that commercial passenger services across the Middle East tracked broadly normal through Friday 27 February before deteriorating sharply on 28 February.
Each of the top 20 airlines that departed the Middle East between 16 February and 1 March recorded week-on-week declines between Week 8 and Week 9. Qatar Airways saw a 25% decline, flydubai witnessed a 27% decline and Emirates saw a 21% decline, with Etihad experiencing a 26% decline.
Turkish Airlines’ flights declined by just 8%, proving the most resilient. In contrast, Iranian carrier Mahan Air posted the steepest decline in the dataset at -35%, reflecting Iran’s direct involvement in the conflict.
The WINGX report shows that the disruption also extended into air freight. In total, 468 cargo departures were recorded across the 23 February to 1 March window, which was down 19% compared to the same dates last year.
